Canada saw a small rebound in jobs this March, but the bigger picture still shows a slowing labour market.
📊 What Happened in March?
Canada added 14,000 jobs in March, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada. While this is a step in the right direction, it only recovers a small portion of the 84,000 jobs lost in February, which came as a surprise to many economists.
The unemployment rate remained steady at 6.7% in March, showing little change from the previous month.
This tells us that while hiring hasn’t surged, conditions in the job market haven’t worsened either. In other words, the labour market is stabilizing slightly, but it hasn’t fully bounced back.
⚖️ Is This a Good Sign?
Not exactly.
Economists say this small increase doesn’t signal strong growth, but it’s still better than continued losses.
✔️ A positive number is better than negative
✔️ The job market didn’t worsen further
❗ But momentum is still weak overall
🏗️ Where Jobs Increased (and Decreased)
📈 Job gains:
- Natural resources
- “Other services” (like personal care and repair services)
📉 Job losses:
- Finance
- Insurance
- Real estate
- Rental & leasing
👉 Notably, real estate-related sectors saw declines, which is something to watch in the housing market.
Overall employment between the public and private sectors didn’t change much in March. However, over the past year, public sector employment has been growing at a faster pace, which continues to support overall job numbers.
💰 Wage Growth (Big Highlight)
- Wages increased 4.7% year-over-year
- Average hourly wage: $37.73
🔥 This is the fastest wage growth since October 2024
Rising wages can be a double-edged sword. Stronger wage growth is good news for workers, as it boosts income and spending power. However, it can also add pressure on inflation if businesses pass those higher costs along.
Because of this, the Bank of Canada will be paying close attention, especially with ongoing concerns around rising energy prices.
🏦 What This Means for Interest Rates
The next Bank of Canada decision is on April 29, and this report adds to the mixed signals they’re already watching.
The job market isn’t weak enough to clearly justify rate cuts, but it’s also not strong enough to suggest the economy is overheating. At the same time, rising wages could make inflation harder to control.
👉 Translation: Rate decisions are still uncertain but we expect rates are likely to hold for now, rather than rush into cuts.
🧠 Bottom Line
- Jobs: Slight rebound, but still weak overall
- Unemployment: Stable
- Wages: Rising quickly
- Outlook: Mixed signals for the economy
📌 Canada’s labour market is holding steady, but not gaining real momentum yet
Canada’s labour market is showing signs of stabilization, but not strength.
🤔 Do we recommend locking in your variable rate mortgage at this time?
☐ Yes
✅ No
☐ Maybe
Fixed rates did climb last month but we’ve started to see those yields trend downward over the past few weeks so fixed rates may inch lower. Locking in now means committing to today’s higher rates while potentially missing better opportunities if that trend continues. With the Bank of Canada still navigating a slowing economy, staying variable keeps you flexible if rates improve.
That said, locking in should depend on your comfort level, timeline, and overall strategy, so reach out to us if you have questions and we’ll walk through it together.