Canada’s housing market isn’t bouncing back just yet. In its latest summer outlook, CMHC says the market will likely remain slow and cautious through 2025, driven by economic uncertainty, slower population growth, and ongoing trade tensions.
📉 Prices Expected to Dip
CMHC predicts home prices will fall about 2% this year. The average Canadian home price could slide from $689,619 in 2024 to between $676,909 and $679,107 in 2025.
- Ontario and BC are expected to see the biggest price drops
- Quebec is holding up better, thanks to stronger buyer confidence
🏘️ Many buyers and builders are still hesitant, holding off on making moves due to economic uncertainty and trade tensions.
🌍 Trade Tensions Add to Economic Pressure
CMHC expects that tariffs between Canada and the U.S. will remain in place for a while, peaking in the second half of 2025 before easing in late 2026 as new agreements are reached. This trade uncertainty, combined with global geopolitical concerns, is pushing inflation above 3% by mid-2026 and could lead to a mild recession this year.
Home building is expected to drop from 245,367 starts in 2024 to as low as 224,948 in 2025.
- Condo projects in Ontario and BC are facing delays, cancellations, or being turned into rentals
- Atlantic Canada, the Prairies, and Quebec are expected to see stronger building activity
🏠 Rental Market Conditions Improving
There’s some good news for renters. As new buildings are completed and demand starts to cool, vacancy rates are beginning to rise slightly. Rents are still going up, but at a slower pace than in recent years, offering some relief for tenants across major cities.
CMHC believes a gradual recovery could begin in 2026. As trade tensions ease, economic confidence returns, and mortgage rates stabilize, the market may find its footing again.
💡 What This Means for Buyers
Affordability remains a key issue, especially in high-cost regions. But this slower market could create opportunities for prepared buyers. With fewer bidding wars, more time to plan, and softening prices, it might be the right time to explore your options — or get ready for when the rebound begins.
📲 Thinking about your next move? We’re here to help you understand your numbers, plan ahead, and make confident decision, no matter where the market stands.